EasyGloPo Weekly Newsletter
Here's What Happened - June 15-21
What to Watch
Russia-Ukraine Update
Russia continues its slow advance across the front. Russian forces captured the villages Zelenyi Kut and Malynivka in Donetsk along with Novomykolaivka and Moskovka in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. The Institute for the Study of War confirmed Russian advances near Kupyansk, Chasiv Yar and Toretsk. Russia’s Defence Ministry said it struck Ukrainian troops in Sumy Oblast with a Iskander missile.
Ukraine claimed to have recaptured the village Andriivka in Sumy Oblast. Kyiv also said it destroyed 3 Russian air defence systems in occupied Zaporizhzhia. Meanwhile, Hennadiy Shapovalov was named Commander of Ukraine’s land forces. His predecessor resigned following a Russian attack on a training compound that killed several Ukrainian soldiers earlier this year.
Russia and Ukraine continue exchanging aerial attacks. Early this week, Ukraine attacked a facility in Russia’s Tatarstan that manufactures drones. Kyiv also targeted Belgorod with 51 drones Monday.
Russia struck an oil refinery in Poltava region Sunday with missiles and drones. The facility supplies fuel to Ukrainian troops fighting in Donbas. A massive Russian drone and missile attack killed at least 28 and wounded 130 in Kyiv Tuesday. 2 people were also killed Tuesday in Odesa. Kharkiv and Odesa were targeted with drones Friday. Russian missiles and drones damaged energy infrastructure in Poltava late Friday night into Saturday, injuring 1.
In diplomacy, President Putin informed President Trump last Saturday that Moscow was willing to resume peace negotiations with Kyiv after both sides complete an exchange of prisoners.
Moscow and Kyiv concluded their fourth exchange of POWs last Saturday. Russia had returned the remains of 4800 troops as of late Sunday/early Monday. Ukraine’s Defence Minister said Kyiv received 6000 bodies in the past week.
After Russia and Ukraine completed further exchanges Thursday and Friday, Putin claimed he would meet Zelensky face to face during the “final phase” of negotiations. Kremlin Spokesman Peskov claimed Russian officials will meet a Ukrainian delegation in the next week.
U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine Kellogg will meet Belarussian President Lukashenko in the coming days in the hope of restarting peace talks.
With diplomacy stalled, Moscow and Kyiv seek support from their respective allies. After a second visit to North Korea this month, the Head of Russia’s Security Council announced Pyongyang will send troops and construction workers to Kursk to assist in demining and rebuilding the region. This comes after British intelligence reported North Korean forces suffered 6000 casualties fighting Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk.
Russia hosted its annual St. Petersburg International Economic Forum this week. Speaking with foreign media, Putin warned Germany would be considered a direct participant in the war if it sent long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine. Russia’s Economic Development Minister and the Head of Russia’s Central Bank said the country was near recession, with changes needed to increase growth.
Also this week, Ukrainian President Zelensky attended the G7 in Alberta, Canada. Zelensky said rising oil prices due to fighting between Israel and Iran could bolster Russia’s war effort with increased funds. Despite these warnings, the G7 reportedly turned down his request to lower the price cap on Russian oil from $60 to $40. Canada pledged nearly $1.5 billion dollars for Ukraine, and announced sanctions targeting individuals, entities and ships in Russia’s “shadow fleet”. Australia said it would also sanction 60 ships allegedly part of Russia’s “shadow fleet”, following the lead of several Western allies.
Middle East Update
The Israel-Iran war continues to dominate Middle East geopolitics. After reportedly killing the IRGC’s intelligence chief and 2 generals Sunday, Israel also said it had destroyed 30% of Iran’s missile launchers.
On Tuesday, Israeli attacks damaged a hospital in Kermanshah, western Iran while killing 3 in Isfahan. Israel also claimed to have killed, “Iran’s most senior military commander” Ali Shadmani.
Israel’s Defence Minister said Israeli jets destroyed Iran’s internal security headquarters, while air attacks hit 2 Iranian centrifuge production facilities. On Friday, Israel continued striking Iranian targets with jets and other weapons. After repeated attacks on surface-based Iranian nuclear infrastructure, the IAEA warned of danger from radiation and chemicals at Natanz nuclear facility. The IAEA Chief also revealed 15,000 centrifuges at Natanz have been damaged or destroyed due to power outages resulting from air attacks.
Iran’s IRGC claimed Tuesday it struck a Mossad operations planning centre and Israeli military intelligence centre. Iranian missiles hit Tel Aviv and northern Israel, with explosions heard in Jerusalem.
After the Supreme Leader said his country would not surrender to anyone, Iran fired drones at Israel again Wednesday. They also claimed to have shot down an Israeli F-35. Iran struck a hospital in southern Israel Thursday before firing a missile salvo at targets, including Nevatim and Hatzerim military bases, Friday.
Both sides are incurring costs as war continues. A senior fellow at the Center for International Policy in Washington claimed Israel is running low on interceptors, due in part to Iran’s initial strategy of using clusters of missiles and drones to saturate and deplete Israeli air defences. They added Iran’s missiles are thus becoming more accurate, with Tehran reportedly hitting military and intelligence centres in Israel. Reports indicate Iran has not used its most advanced ballistic missiles, like the Fattah-2, suggesting Iran retains escalation potential.
Relatedly, a U.S. official told Wall Street Journal Israel is running low on Arrow missile interceptors which could hinder the interception of Iranian missiles. The U.S. supplied Israel with additional defence systems in response.
There are also reports of several Chinese cargo planes arriving in Iran after the war began. The planes were Boeing 747, which are often used to transport military supplies. Notably, China gets 16% of its oil from Iran, much of which arrives at a discount. Thus, Beijing has a vested interest in supporting Iran’s regime.
In diplomacy, Trump reportedly refused a request for Israeli intervention. Trump also claimed he vetoed an Israeli plan to assassinate Iran’s Supreme Leader. The plan suggests Netanyahu is potentially pursuing a policy aimed at engineering regime change in Tehran.
Iran warned the U.S., U.K. and France that intervention would result in there regional assets being targeted after each country moved military equipment to the region. Russian, Chinese, Turkish, Qatari and Iraqi officials condemned Israel’s attacks.
Reports mid week indicated the U.S. and Iran are negotiating to resolve the conflict. Washington was rumoured to believe the possible transfer of bunker buster bombs to Israel granted them leverage in potential talks. On Wednesday, Iran denied it was seeking talks with Washington.
The White House revealed Thursday that Trump would decide whether to attack Iran in the next 2 weeks. Iran’s Foreign Minister meet his German, French and British counterparts Friday in Switzerland, and said Tehran was open to talks if Israel halts its attacks. No breakthrough was achieved.
Ominously, reports early Saturday revealed Washington was moving B-2 bombers from the American midwest to Guam in the Pacific Ocean, and the on to a base on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. The base is within a fuelling stop of being able to attack Iran. B-2 stealth bombers are the only ones capable of carrying the “bunker-busting” bombs needed to hit Iran’s underground nuclear facilities at Fordow.
Late Saturday evening eastern time, Trump announced the U.S. had launched strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Amid escalating tensions in the region, fighting and violence continues to rock Gaza. Early in the week, Israel reportedly killed 20 Palestinians and wounded several others at a GHF aid distribution site while they awaited food. On Tuesday, dozens of Palestinians were killed, including several aid seekers. On Wednesday, Israeli forces conducted a raid into the occupied West Bank. 82 Palestinians were killed in Gaza due to Israeli attacks Friday.
In Case You Missed It
E.U.-Australia Ties
Australia’s Defence and Foreign Ministers met European officials on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in Canada to discuss a possible defence partnership. Australia’s Prime Minister was scheduled to meet with Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission President, in the coming days.
Astana Summit
China and Central Asian countries took part in a summit in the Kazakh capital Astana. They aimed to increase cooperation in energy, trade, transit and security.
G7 Update
At the summit in Canada, participants developed a plan to strengthen supply chains for critical minerals. The proposal reportedly includes collaboration on diversifying supplies along with the onshoring of mining, processing and manufacturing operations.
South Korean Diplomacy
South Korea’s new President met Japan’s Prime Minister on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Canada. They agreed to cooperate on regional issues of mutual concern, including North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs. Relatedly, the new Liberal administration of Lee Jae-Myung has taken measures to reduce tensions with North Korea, such as halting broadcasts of hostile propaganda across the Demilitarised Zone.
Turkish Drills
The Anatolian Eagle exercises involving the U.S., Turkiye, Saudi Arabia and other countries are scheduled to begin this coming week. The drills will be hosted by Turkiye.