An Interview with Dr. Pascal Lottaz

Discussing the State of the World

Dr. Pascal Lottaz is a Swiss academic based in Japan. His research focuses on neutrality in international relations. He hosts the popular Neutrality Studies YouTube channel (linked below).

Dr. Lottaz kindly gave us his thoughts on the state of the world, the plight of Europe and the role of neutrality in global politics.

This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

EasyGloPo: Dr. Lottaz, thank you for your time. You’re a Swiss academic based in Japan. Why did you decide to move to Asia?

Dr. Lottaz: I came to Japan 21 years ago as a high school exchange student, and really enjoyed my time here. I did an internship during university here, and through that found an interesting school to do an MA. The school later became the place for my PhD project. Once I finished this, I found a job at a university. I’m now at a second university. So basically, one thing led to another and I’m still here, albeit with breaks in between and regular visits back home now that I work here permanently.

EasyGloPo: Much of your work focuses on neutrality and neutrality studies. What does neutrality mean in global politics? Why did you decide to study neutrality?

Dr. Lottaz: My PhD project looked at the diplomatic relations of Spain, Sweden and Switzerland with the Japanese Empire during WWII. All 3 countries were neutral and all 3 were able engage in diplomacy, irregardless that 2 were liberal democracies and Spain was a fascist dictatorship. Diplomatically, they were able to do exactly the same things. I found that fascinating, and thought I had misunderstood neutrality as a policy only for small, permanently neutral countries. It is not. Neutrality itself is much bigger, so I decided to investigate this and make it my own field of study.

Neutrality can be many, many things, and it’s not possible to give a single satisfactory definition. The way I see it, neutrality is best described as “the politics of third-party actors toward conflict”. This is very broad and only captures the analytical sense that I’m after in international relations, but I think the core of it boils down to this: neutrals are inherently related to 2 conflict parties, while being not part of the conflict among the parties.

EasyGloPo: Global politics is in a state of flux. The future of the American led, Liberal-International order is uncertain. Why do you think global politics has become so unstable?

Dr. Lottaz: Global politics has always been unstable, and there have been much more dramatic moments than this one. Just think of WWI, WWII, the Cuban Missile Crisis, the end of the Cold War, etc. The anomaly we’ve had in Europe was the 30 years of relative calm between 1991 and 2022. Even that period was not very calm as it included the Yugoslav Wars, the War on Terror and the build up toward the current instability.

So in a way, the problem is that we imagine the past as more stable than it actually was. On the other hand, we have entered a new period that can best be described as “Multipolar” or “Multinodal” (as Ambassador Chas Freeman frequently says), in which more than 1 or 2 centres of great power exist and compete with each other. At the moment, we have at least 3 in Russia, China and the U.S. We also have new dynamics of formerly colonised countries asserting themselves on the world stage. This includes India, Brazil, South Africa and many others. This is changing the power-dynamic that Europeans in particular were so accustomed to.

EasyGloPo: Many analysts emphasise the role of populists like Donald Trump in upending global politics. Others argue these figures are symptoms of broader, deep-rooted structural issues. What is your opinion?

Dr. Lottaz: I belong to the people who see them as symptoms. They are of course very consequential, but even if these people were not sitting at the helm of their states, someone similar to them would be.

EasyGloPo: The return of great-power competition and a multipolar international system will create challenges for some countries. For example, South Korea is a pillar of the U.S. security architecture in East Asia. At the same time, South Korea’s largest trading partner is China. If U.S.-Chinese tensions continue increasing, Seoul could face pressure from Washington or Beijing to choose sides. Are there any countries or regions you see as especially vulnerable in a multipolar international system?

Dr. Lottaz: Seoul is a clear cut case. They have a very firm military alliance with the US. Unless Seoul reverses course (which is unlikely), there will never be any wavering in military terms. Just imagine, in the event of an attack from North Korea, the entire (joint) forces of the South Koreans will actually be commanded by an American. That’s how tight the integration is.

There are other countries that are trying to chart an independent and “neutral” (in my definition above) course. Most ASEAN states (except the Philippines) belong in this category. The most important ones are Indonesia and Malaysia. Both try very hard to avoid deep entanglements with any great power while remaining friendly to all of them. In fact, one of ASEAN’s foreign policy pillars, the so called “Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality” (ZOPFAN) is centred in neutrality. This has been a defining element of the bloc’s foreign policy trajectory, and will continue playing a role.

India and many central Asian states are also trying very hard to be friends with all and foe to none, as Thucydides used to define neutrality. Most South American countries are too.

EasyGloPo: Is neutrality a viable strategy for small and medium sized states in a multipolar system? Which countries do you see effectively practicing neutraily in global politics today?

Dr. Lottaz: Yes, it is. And often there is not even much of a choice. Take Mongolia for example, which is bordered by China and Russia. If it allied itself militarily against one, it would be threatened by the other. Therefore, it’s better for Mongolia to keep a balanced foreign policy and reach out to third states as much as possible while making sure it does not upset its 2 large neighbours. While they don’t call themselves neutral at the moment, they use a policy of neutrality to maintain stability in their region.

In my analytical sense, there are quite a lot of countries using neutrality politics in one way or another. Officially neutral countries that identify as such are few: Switzerland, Austria, Ireland, the Vatican, Serbia, Moldova, Turkmenistan, the Aland Islands and Costa Rica. There are some neutral waterways like the Panama Canal. There are also countries that call themselves “non-aligned”, although this term is used less often these days. Non-aligned states are closer to what I think of as “third-party actors in conflict”, of which we have a lot.

EasyGloPo: Europe has been central to global politics and diplomacy for centuries. Today however, Europe struggles to remain relevant as power shifts to the East. You have been critical of European diplomacy and strategic thinking on your channel. In your opinion, where has Europe gone wrong in this regard? Why has European diplomacy and strategic thinking declined in recent years?

Dr. Lottaz: This is a very good question, and one that would require a deep dive into European history. The short version is Europe is so accustomed to its privileged status and dogmatic about its ideological superiority (while looking down on everyone else and dismissing alternative civilisational models such as those of Russia and China), that they effectively boxed themselves in once their military and economic power was insufficient to dominate the world. Today, Europe is in a sad state, mainly ideologically. They cry like little children, “but we are the good ones” and throw temper tantrums while committing war crimes left and right. Just look at how many European countries support the Gaza genocide by sending weapons, or holding a protective hand over Israel via their spineless politics. All this while claiming the moral high-ground. It’s utterly grotesque. Luckily, the rest of the world now sees Europe as the genocide supporters they really are.

EasyGloPo: Can Europe still play an important role in a multipolar world? How can Europe remain relevant?

Dr. Lottaz: Nope. Europe’s time is over. They can still participate in the global economy, in global trade and in the international system, but the time when they were a “pivotal part” of it is done. Europe could sink into the Atlantic tomorrow, and the rest of the world would barely notice. Yes, a large market for goods would be gone, and I’m of course exaggerating, but the rest of the world is not depending on Europe anymore. And that’s a good thing. Let’s not forget that Europe exterminated much of the populations in North and South America as well as in Australia. So really, Europe imprinted its seal on the world, but not in a very positive way. I’m quite glad that this dominance is now ending for good.

EasyGloPo: As mentioned above, you’re based in Japan. How do you assess the Japanese perspective on global affairs today? In your view, how is Japanese diplomacy and strategic thinking similar and different from that of the Europeans?

Dr. Lottaz: Japanese politics often looks similar to that of Europe, but what actually happens under the hood is quite different. Japan today looks as if it is tethered to the U.S. and Europe, but in fact their economy has diversified quite a bit. They did not follow the ideological moment in the West when it came to Covid and Russia. Yes, Japan put sanctions on Russia, but it never sent weapons to Ukraine. It also continued oil and gas joint ventures in the north with Russia, so Japan has been more pragmatic in my view. Now the sanctions from the U.S. are really angering Tokyo, and are leading to a rethink of Japan’s trade strategy and alliance with the U.S. They won’t give it up, but they are now more aware that if push comes to shove, they need to be able to care for themselves. That’s a relatively fresh mindset which will carry forward. My hope is that Japan will find more common ground, especially with China, to help balance politics in the Pacific region. There are some hopeful signs, but they are still relatively small. However, absent pressure campaigns from the outside, I’m convinced Japan will try to maintain the peaceful status quo in its region for as long as possible.

EasyGloPo: Dr. Lottaz, thank you for your time.

You can find Dr. Lottaz’s YouTube channel linked below:

www.youtube.com/@neutralitystudies